A Former Bank of Canada Insider Just Gave Us His 2026 Playbook. Here's What It Means for Your Business.

Paul Beaudry spent years helping shape Canadian monetary policy from inside the Bank of Canada. So when he offers a roadmap for 2026, it's worth paying attention.

His verdict? Trade uncertainty is the single most significant risk facing the Canadian economy this year. However, rates are unlikely to change significantly, and that's a tailwind that most mortgage and real estate professionals should be building around.

CUSMA Is the Main Event

The formal review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement is set to begin in July 2026. However, the negotiations have already begun behind closed doors, and the Trump administration has made it clear that it wants concessions.

Beaudry acknowledges that Canada has thus far dodged the worst tariffs. Energy, grains, and most manufactured goods still flow across the border with minimal friction. But that goodwill is conditional, and predicting what the U.S. administration ultimately wants is, in Beaudry's words, "really hard."

The good news? American industry groups have been strongly supportive of maintaining CUSMA's current status. From almond growers in California to automakers in Michigan, the message to Washington has been consistent: this trade deal works for us.

Rates: No Hikes in Sight

Here's the headline most brokers will want to lead with: Beaudry doesn't see any realistic scenario where the Bank of Canada raises rates in 2026.

Inflation has broadly returned to the 2% target. The labour market, while improved, still shows slack. The economic uncertainty created by trade tensions provides policymakers with every reason to remain cautious.

Most major banks now expect the overnight rate to hold steady at 2.25% through the year. Some even see modest cuts if CUSMA talks falter or economic conditions weaken.

For clients sitting on variable-rate mortgages, this is reassuring news. For fence-sitters waiting for "the right time," this might be as stable as rates get for a while.

The AI Wrinkle

Beaudry also flagged a risk that's not getting enough attention: the rapid expansion of AI investment and whether current Big Tech valuations are sustainable.

He drew parallels to the years leading up to 2008, noting that the companies investing most heavily in AI aren't necessarily the ones who will capture the returns.

For real estate professionals, this matters because tech valuations influence everything from venture capital flows to corporate real estate decisions. A correction in that space could ripple through markets in unexpected ways.

What This Means for Your Business

The core message from Beaudry's outlook is this: 2026 is a year of managed uncertainty. Rates aren't spiking. Trade negotiations will dominate headlines. And consumers are nervous, but not paralyzed.

That creates an opportunity for professionals who can do three things well:

1. Communicate clearly. Clients are overwhelmed by conflicting information. Be the voice that simplifies without dumbing down.
2. Stay proactive. Don't wait for clients to call you when rates move or trade news breaks. Reach out first.
3. Focus on retention. In uncertain markets, professionals who maintain relationships through consistent engagement will outperform those who chase new leads.

The brokers and agents who thrive in 2026 won't necessarily be the ones with the hottest leads. They'll be the ones who kept their existing clients informed, engaged, and confident.

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