Every February, CMHC publishes its Housing Market Outlook and every February, the headlines follow the same script: "Slow market ahead," "Recession risk looms," "Condo construction in trouble." This year is no different. But if you read past the first paragraph, you'll find something more useful than anxiety: a playbook.
Let's break down what CMHC is actually telling us about 2026 and what it means for mortgage brokers, real estate agents, and brokerage owners who need to plan, not panic.
The Numbers That Matter
CMHC is forecasting 489,000 home sales nationally, up from 470,000 in 2025. Average price: $698,000, a modest increase from $680,000. Housing starts are projected to fall to 247,000, down from 259,000, as developers face high costs, weaker demand, and a growing inventory of unsold units.
GDP growth? Just 0.7%. That makes 2026 one of the weakest years in recent memory, outside of an actual recession. And yes, CMHC notes that a mild recession remains a possibility if business sentiment worsens and government projects stall.
But here's the thing: CMHC isn't predicting catastrophe. They're describing a slow, grinding adjustment. That's a different animal entirely.
Ontario and B.C.: Pent-Up, Not Sustained
The report highlights Ontario and B.C. as leading the 2026 sales rebound. Before you break out the champagne, read the fine print: this is pent-up demand from two of the weakest sales periods in decades, not evidence of a healthy recovery.
Translation: buyers who've been sitting on the sidelines are starting to move, but they're cautious, affordability-focused, and not in a hurry. For agents, this means longer sales cycles, more hand-holding, and a premium on trust. For brokers, it means clients who need guidance on qualification, rate strategy, and whether now is really the right time.
The Prairies and Quebec, meanwhile, continue to outperform their 10-year averages. If your network or referral base is geographically concentrated, consider whether diversification makes sense.
Condo Starts: The Real Canary
The biggest structural shift in this report is the condo market. CMHC projects condominium starts to remain "particularly weak," especially in Toronto, where pre-construction sales hit multi-decade lows in 2025. Developers are focused on completing existing projects, not launching new ones.
This matters beyond developers. Fewer new condos mean less inventory down the road, which could create supply constraints in three to five years. It also means the agents and brokers who specialize in new construction need to diversify their expertise now.
Renewals: Your Best Lead Source (Still)
Here's the number that should dominate your 2026 strategy: 60% of outstanding mortgages are expected to renew in 2026. That's not a lead generation problem. That's a retention problem.
Most homeowners won't run the math themselves. They won't realize that rising equity might let them upgrade, or that a Bank of Canada rate cut changes their options. If you're not staying top of mind with personalized, relevant outreach, you're leaving money on the table.
The brokers winning this game aren't sending birthday cards. They're using data-driven insights to trigger conversations before clients even know they should be asking questions.
The Silver Lining: Balance
For all the headwinds, CMHC is also describing a market moving toward balance. Rental vacancy rates are rising nationally, giving renters more flexibility before they buy. That's not bad news. It's healthier market conditions.
For landlords, it means retention strategies matter more than rent maximization. For agents working with first-time buyers, it means clients have breathing room to plan rather than panic.
The Bottom Line
CMHC's 2026 outlook isn't a warning. It's a briefing. The professionals who treat it like a roadmap, not a headline, will be positioned to win.
That means:
- Prioritizing client retention over lead generation
- Targeting affordability-conscious buyers in ON/BC rebound pockets
- Diversifying your regional expertise toward the Prairies and Quebec
- Building trust through proactive, personalized communication
The market isn't going to hand you volume this year. But it will reward the advisors who show up, stay visible, and help clients make smart decisions in uncertain times.
That's always been the job. In 2026, it just matters more.
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