CREA's new forecast for 2026 reads like cautious optimism with a side of math. Sales up 5.1%. Prices up 2.8%. Markets are stabilizing after a bumpy 2025. All true, all sensible, all very much burying the lead.
The real story is about who's buying and what happens when they do.
The First-Time Buyer Surge Is Real
After four years of watching from the stands, first-time buyers are finally stepping onto the field. The Bank of Canada's October 2025 announcement that rates had likely bottomed at 2.25% was the starting gun many had been waiting for.
CREA's senior economist Shaun Cathcart pointed to something most forecasts skip: the 30-34 and 35-39 age brackets are now Canada's two largest demographics. These aren't casual browsers. According to Abacus Data, 75% of non-homeowners aged 30-34 want to own property someday. "Someday" is increasingly looking like "this year."
The Inventory Math Gets Interesting
Here's where it gets tricky: first-time buyers don't add listings. They remove them.
Unlike move-up buyers who sell one property while purchasing another, first-timers only consume supply. If they drive demand as expected, inventory levels could tighten rapidly. CREA reported 4.5 months of national inventory at year-end, already on the tight side of the five-month long-term average.
Cathcart didn't mince words: "If it happens at the national scale, it could be back in seller's market territory by summer or fall."
The Regional Divide Deepens
Not all markets are recovering equally. B.C. and Ontario are forecast to see sales climb more than 8%, driven by the simple fact that they fell the hardest. Meanwhile, provinces like Saskatchewan and Quebec, where markets remained relatively healthy, will see gains of less than half that amount.
Price growth tells a similar story. B.C., Ontario, Alberta, and Nova Scotia will see more subdued increases, while markets that ran hot in 2025 (Saskatchewan, Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador) will cool from the 6-8% range down to 3-6%.
The condo market remains a wildcard. Toronto and Vancouver condos are still working through oversupply, with investors who bought pre-construction units increasingly looking to exit as costs outpace rental income.
What This Means for Your Business
If you're a mortgage broker, your first-time buyer pipeline just became your most valuable asset. These clients will need education, patience, and guidance through a market that's moving faster than headlines suggest. The relationships you build now will compound for years.
If you're an agent, inventory acquisition becomes critical. In a market where supply could tighten by mid-year, winning listings is the competitive advantage. The agents who stay top-of-mind with potential sellers will control the flow.
The Bottom Line
CREA's forecast is conservative by design. They're not predicting a boom. But look past the percentages and the picture is clear: the four-year backlog of sidelined buyers is about to move, and the professionals who've maintained relationships through the slow years will be positioned to benefit.
The question isn't whether activity is coming. It's whether your client engagement is ready for it.
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