On the surface, the numbers look reassuring. True North Mortgage's 2026 Sentiment Survey found that 83% of Canadians have never missed a mortgage payment. If you stopped reading there, you might think the Canadian mortgage market is humming along just fine. But the same survey reveals that 36% of mortgage holders found it challenging to keep up with payments over the past year, and 57% reported cutting back in other areas to stay current. That is not a market in crisis. It is a market in quiet strain, and the distinction matters enormously for mortgage professionals.
What the Survey Actually Found
True North Mortgage conducted an online survey of 1,056 Canadians between January 14 and 27, 2026. The headline figure of 83% payment consistency is real, but the details tell a more complex story. Among those who are keeping up, 36% delayed or avoided travel, 31% postponed home repairs, and 27% reduced retirement savings or investments. Another 73% of mortgage holders said their current rate is manageable, but 19% acknowledged payments could become difficult if their finances change, and 8% already find their rate challenging.
Scott Larter, CEO of BrokerBot, sums it up: "83% never missed a payment sounds like a success story. But when you dig in and find that more than half of mortgage holders are cutting retirement savings and skipping home repairs just to stay current, that is not success. That is survival. And survival mode is exactly when clients need a broker most."
The Renewal Table: Where the Stress Shows Up
At renewal, the anxiety becomes explicit. The survey found that 36% of borrowers identified interest rate uncertainty as their top concern, followed by 16% who cited higher-than-expected payments, 10% who chose between fixed and variable rates, and 9% who worried about locking in at the wrong time or for the wrong term. Combined, these numbers paint a picture of a borrower base that is not panicking, but is deeply uncertain about what comes next.
Chad Wilson, Principal Broker at Ideal Mortgage Solutions, told Canadian Mortgage Trends: "We're finding that most clients are expecting payment increases on their next renewal, fully understanding that the 'pandemic rates' they were paying were not a realistic expectation." He added: "They've generally done a good job of planning for higher payments. Spending habits have changed; people are being less careless and more diligent with their budgets, which is a good thing."
The Renewal Wave: 1.8 Million Mortgages and Counting
The timing makes these findings especially significant. An estimated 1.8 million Canadian mortgages will come up for renewal in the next 12 months, with volume peaking in June 2026. Fixed-rate borrowers face an average 26% increase in payments, while variable-rate holders are looking at roughly 4%. According to Ratehub.ca, clients who shop around rather than auto-renewing save an average of $13,857.
Scott Larter sees the renewal wave as the defining opportunity of the year: "Here is what most brokers miss about the renewal wave. The 1.8 million mortgages coming up are not just transactions. They are conversations waiting to happen. Every one of those clients has a question about rates, payments, or whether they should fix or float. The professional who answers first wins."
OSFI's Warning: The Vulnerable Cohort
OSFI Superintendent Peter Routledge told Bloomberg that between 30,000 and 150,000 borrowers will have trouble refinancing over the next two years. The affected group includes those with loan-to-value ratios above 80% amid slipping home prices and total debt service ratios above 44%. Routledge said, "Depending on what house prices do, that cohort could be anywhere from about 30,000 to 150,000," and acknowledged, "It's really unfortunate for those households." He added a note of systemic reassurance: "We think the system has the earnings to absorb that stress."
Separately, CMHC Deputy Chief Economist Tania Bourassa-Ochoa noted that "Arrears are rising, but not at the pace we previously expected. In a way, this is relatively positive news since the situation is not as dire as it could have been." The national delinquency rate increased by 7 basis points, reaching 0.22% between 2023 and 2025, while Toronto's arrears rate surged from 0.06% in Q3 2022 to 0.26% in Q3 2025 and is projected to reach 0.34% by the end of 2026.
What Brokers Should Do Right Now
The data points in one direction: clients are managing, but not comfortably, and they need guidance. The 57% who are cutting back are not going to raise their hands and ask for help. They need proactive outreach. Scott Larter puts it directly: "The survey says 36% of borrowers name interest rate uncertainty as their top concern at renewal. That tells me one thing: over a third of your renewal pipeline is sitting at home, worried and waiting for someone to explain their options. Be that someone."
Practically, that means reviewing your renewal pipeline for clients coming up in the next 90 to 120 days, leading with education rather than product, and framing the conversation around total financial health rather than just the rate.
The Silver Lining
For all the stress beneath the surface, the fundamentals are not dire. The best insured 5-year fixed rate sits at 3.94%. The best 5-year variable is 3.35%, the lowest since summer 2022. Borrowers who shop around save an average of nearly $14,000. And despite the challenges, 62% of survey respondents still said housing remains a stable investment, while 53% said homeownership is still achievable with effort. The clients who are stretched need a professional who can show them a clearer path forward. That is the opportunity.
FAQs
Q: How bad is mortgage stress in Canada right now?
While 83% of Canadians have never missed a payment, 36% found it challenging to keep up and 57% cut spending elsewhere. The stress is real but manageable for most. BrokerBot's client engagement tools help brokers identify which clients may be under pressure and reach out with relevant guidance.
Q: How many borrowers are at risk of refinancing trouble?
OSFI estimates 30,000 to 150,000 borrowers may have trouble refinancing over the next two years. BrokerBot's pipeline management features help brokers track clients approaching renewal and flag those who may need early intervention.
Q: What is the biggest concern for borrowers at renewal?
Interest rate uncertainty, cited by 36% of borrowers. BrokerBot's rate alert and market update tools keep brokers informed so they can proactively address client concerns with current data.
Q: How much can clients save by shopping around at renewal?
Ratehub.ca reports an average savings of $13,857 for borrowers who shop around rather than auto-renewing. BrokerBot makes it easy to present competitive options and demonstrate broker value at renewal.
Q: Should clients choose fixed or variable rates right now?
The best 5-year variable is at 3.35% and the best insured 5-year fixed is at 3.94%. The right choice depends on each client's risk tolerance and financial situation. BrokerBot's side-by-side comparison tools help brokers walk clients through the scenarios in plain language.
Q: How should brokers be talking to stressed clients?
Lead with empathy and education, not product. When 57% of mortgage holders are cutting back to stay current, the conversation should start with their full financial picture. BrokerBot's content library provides brokers with ready-to-share resources that frame the discussion around strategy, not just rates.
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