67% of Canadians Renewing in the Next Year Are Nervous. Here Is Exactly How Brokers, Agents, and Insurance Pros Should Use That Data.

Once a year, a Canadian industry body publishes a survey so specific that it can settle every renewal conversation a working broker will have for the next 12 months. Mortgage Professionals Canada just did it. Two thousand Canadians, surveyed in February by Bond Brand Loyalty, told the industry the truth about how the renewal wave actually feels at the kitchen table. The data is uncomfortable, and the action plan is obvious.

What the Renewal Wave Survey Actually Says

Per the MPC release on June 24, one in three mortgage holders has a renewal coming in the next 12 months. Among that group, 67% are anxious about the rate they will get. 6% are already struggling with current payments. 44% say they would struggle if payments rose by less than 15%. The exposure is even higher for two specific groups. First-time buyers from the past five years: 66% anxious, 37% regret the size of their mortgage, and 53% would struggle with a sub-15% payment hike. Newcomers to Canada: 68% anxious, 57% regret the size, and 67% would struggle. More than one-third of all mortgage holders say they need to rent part of their home to make ends meet, up from 25% in 2021.

The Scale of the Wave

This is not a small problem. CMHC's 2026 outlook counts 1.15 million renewals this year and 940,000 more in 2027. OSFI puts the cumulative number at 3.1 million mortgages renewed by the end of 2027, roughly 52% of all Canadian mortgages. BMO Economics flags June 2026 as the absolute peak month for the renewal wave, with the densest cluster of 5-year fixed mortgages from June 2021 maturing all at once into a rate environment roughly 230 basis points higher than where they started.

The Good News Brokers Should Lead With

Half of 2026 renewals will actually see payments held or declined, per BMO Economics, because borrowers used shorter terms during the tightening cycle or switched to variable. Bond yields have settled into the 3% range. The lowest 5-year fixed insured rate is currently 4.04%, with variable rates as low as 3.45%. The Bank of Canada has held the overnight rate at 2.25% for the fifth consecutive decision and is widely expected to stay there through year-end. The story for the calm renewer is real, and brokers should tell it: rates are stable, options exist, and the people who shop around win.

The Hard News Brokers Need to Tell

The other half of the wave is the part the MPC survey just measured. About 25% of 2026 renewers face payment increases of 20% or more, per BMO. That cohort is the 67% who told MPC they are anxious. They are mostly the borrowers who locked in at sub-2% rates in 2020 and 2021. For a $500,000 mortgage, moving from 2.5% to 4.0% is roughly $300 to $400 more per month for the next five years. Ratehub estimates the average April 2026 fixed-rate renewer is paying $622 more per month, a 24% increase. That is the payment shock the survey is reflecting.

Why This Matters for Mortgage Brokers

Two-thirds of your renewal book is nervous, almost half have no payment cushion, and the bank is going to mail every one of them a renewal letter offering the easiest path. That letter is the path of least resistance and the path that costs you the deal. The brokers who reach out 6 to 9 months ahead of renewal with three payment scenarios, an amortization extension option, and a refi discussion keep the file. The brokers who wait for the renewal letter to land lose it. The math is unambiguous. The action is calling the client.

As Kevin Dear, COO of BrokerBot, puts it: "The MPC data is the cleanest sales argument we have seen in two years. 1.15 million renewals, 67% anxious, 44% with no payment cushion. If a broker pulls their list and emails the renewals due in the next nine months with three payment scenarios and their direct line, they win the next twenty files. The brokers who wait for the bank to send the letter lose them."

Why This Matters for Real Estate Agents

The two most exposed groups in the MPC survey are recent first-time buyers and newcomers. Those are also your two most active client segments for the next 24 months. The first-time buyer who closed in 2021 is now five years older, has equity, has a renewal coming, and is statistically likely to be anxious about the payment. That is a move-up conversation, a refi conversation, or a downsize conversation, depending on the household. Agents who reach out this summer with a check-in and a local market update get the listing when the household decides which direction to go. Agents who go silent get the call after the listing has been signed with someone else.

Why This Matters for Insurance Brokers

More than one-third of mortgage holders now say they need to rent part of their home, up from 25% in 2021. That single number is the cleanest cross-sell argument insurance brokers have had in years. Every secondary suite, every in-law unit, every basement apartment created over the next 12 months is a coverage gap, a liability conversation, and a policy upgrade. Insurance brokers plugged into the broker-agent referral ecosystem catch that volume. The ones waiting for the homeowner to call at policy renewal do not.

What the BoC and CPI Picture Says About Timing

The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 2.25% on June 10, marking the fifth consecutive hold, with the prime rate at 4.45%. The June 24 deliberations released this week make a near-term rescue cut look unlikely, and most major bank economists now expect a hold through year-end. The May CPI print of 3.2%, a 29-month high, essentially closes the door on a July rate cut. Translation for working professionals: the rate environment your clients renew into is the rate environment that exists right now. Waiting for one more cut is no longer a sound strategy. The conversation is about options, terms, and amortization, not about timing.

The Three-Action Plan for This Week

Pull your list. Filter for renewal dates between July 2026 and June 2027. Send one email today with three payment scenarios at current best rates, an offer to discuss amortization options, and your direct line. That is it. The professionals who do this in the next seven days win the renewal wave. The ones who wait for the bank to send the letter lose 67% of those nervous clients.

FAQs

Q: What did the MPC Renewal Wave survey actually find?

Per the MPC June 24 release, one-third of mortgage holders renew in the next 12 months. 67% of those renewers are anxious. 6% are already struggling, and 44% would struggle if payments rose by less than 15%. First-time buyers and newcomers are the most exposed. The survey was conducted by Bond Brand Loyalty across roughly 2,000 Canadians between February 5 and 25, 2026. BrokerBot translates Canadian housing and mortgage data releases like this one into plain language, so working professionals can have these conversations without having to do the research themselves.

Q: How many Canadian mortgages are actually renewing?

Per CMHC's latest renewal wave outlook, 1.15 million mortgages renew in 2026 and 940,000 more in 2027. OSFI puts the cumulative number at 3.1 million by end of 2027, roughly 52% of all Canadian mortgages.

Q: How much higher will payments actually be?

Per BMO Economics, about half of 2026 renewals see payments hold or decline. 15% face a 10% to 20% increase. About 25% face a 20% or larger increase, mostly borrowers coming off 5-year fixed mortgages or variable mortgages from the 2020 and 2021 rate lows. Ratehub estimates the average April 2026 fixed renewer is paying $622 more per month, a 24% increase.

Q: What rates can borrowers actually get right now?

Per Ratehub data on June 26, the best 5-year fixed insured rate is 4.04% and the best 5-year variable is 3.45%. The Bank of Canada has held the overnight rate at 2.25% since October 2025, with prime at 4.45%.

Q: What should a working broker actually do this week?

Pull your list, filter for renewal dates between July 2026 and June 2027, and send one email with three payment scenarios and your direct line. The MPC data says 67% of those clients are anxious and 44% have no payment cushion. They will respond to outreach. The bank's renewal letter is what costs you the deal.

Q: How does BrokerBot help with the renewal wave?

BrokerBot tracks every renewal date in a broker's book and automatically sends clients monthly home value updates, equity insights, and renewal alerts under the broker's brand. Powered by 18 million Canadian property records through the OPTA/FCT partnership, the platform surfaces which clients are most likely to need a payment scenario conversation before renewal. 82% of homeowners want monthly value updates. The brokers who deliver them are the ones their clients call when the renewal letter shows up. Top of mind beats top of Google every time.