.png)
Two years ago, every mortgage broker in Canada was fielding the same question: "When will rates come down?" Fast-forward to today, with the BoC at 2.5%, inventory up, and prices softening, and the question has evolved into: "Why isn't anyone buying?"
Welcome to the first-time buyer paradox of 2025.
The Numbers Don't Lie (But They Don't Tell the Whole Story)
Royal LePage's latest survey delivers a masterclass in market psychology. Despite textbook "buyer-friendly" conditions, only 13% of Canadian adults actively work toward a home purchase in the next two years. More telling: 82% of those potential buyers are kicking the can for another 12-24 months.
On paper, this makes zero sense. Toronto and Vancouver (aka those affordability nightmares we've all complained about) are showing price softening. Inventory is up 8.8% year-over-year. The BoC has cut rates seven consecutive times, dropping from 5% to 2.5%.
So what gives?
The Trade War Elephant in the Room
The headlines missed the fact that the U.S.-Canada trade war disrupted confidence, not just supply chains. When 25% tariffs fly around and job security feels shakier than a house of cards, even 3% mortgage rates start looking less appealing.
Mortgage broker Ron Butler put it bluntly: "People just pulled right back and said, 'We're not going to make any big decisions like this, I don't know if I'm going to have a job.'" This isn't about affordability anymore; it's about certainty.
The Survival Strategies Are Telling
The survey reveals how buyers are adapting:
- 60% are searching more affordable areas
- 40% are downsizing their wish lists
- 39% are cutting discretionary spending to save
- Just over half expect zero family financial help
Translation: the market isn't broken, it's just operating under different rules. Buyers haven't given up—they're getting creative and cautious.
What This Means for Your Business
The Renewal Gold Rush: With over 1 million mortgage renewals hitting in 2025, the real action isn't in new purchases—it's in retention. Equifax reports 28% of homeowners are switching at renewal, up 46% from last year. That's your immediate opportunity.
Pipeline Management 2.0: Those 82% planning to buy in 12-24 months aren't lost leads—they're your 2026 goldmine. But they need nurturing, not just rate quotes. Focus on education, market updates, and relationship building.
Regional Reality Check: While national numbers look subdued, Montreal, Greater Vancouver, and Ottawa drove August 2025 to the best August sales since 2021. The market isn't dead; it's selective.
The Confidence Play
Here's the strategic takeaway: in uncertain times, you're not just selling mortgages—you're selling confidence. Clients don't need another rate comparison; they need someone who understands both the numbers and the psychology.
The fundamentals are aligned for recovery. The BoC has done its job; inventory is being built, and prices are being modified. What's missing is the confidence catalyst—likely trade resolution or simply time for uncertainty to fade.
This market rewards relationship builders over rate chasers. The buyers are out there, qualified and ready, but they're waiting for the right messenger, not just the right message. Position yourself as that messenger, and when confidence returns—and it will—you'll be first in line for the flood of pent-up demand.
The question isn't whether first-time buyers will return. It's whether you'll be ready when they do.
.png)
